McCain leads Obama by 9 in rural battleground

Obama stronger on economy, change; McCain on values, Iraq

PRESS RELEASE
CONTACT:Tim Marema, 865/494-7980, tim@ruralstrategies.org

WHITESBURG, Ky. -- Republican John McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 9 points among rural voters in battleground states, according to a poll released today (Sunday, May 18, 2008)by the Center for Rural Strategies on behalf of the National Rural Assembly.

Among likely voters in rural parts of 13 swing states, 50 percent favored McCain while 41 percent supported Obama, who leads in Democratic primary delegates. In a matchup between Hillary Clinton and McCain, likely rural voters split evenly, each with 46 percent.

The poll reveals problems and opportunities for both parties, according to political consultants who analyzed the nonpartisan poll.

Republican poll adviser Bill Greener of Greener and Hook said McCain has strong support among rural voters. "It's clear the Republican brand is suffering across the nation, including in rural America," Greener said. "But McCain still shows strength, even if it is not yet at the level that will be required on Election Day to win."

Large rural margins were central to George W. Bush's White House victories. He won rural voters nationally by 11 points in 2000 and 19 points in 2004.

"Obama enjoys a 10-point advantage over McCain on change and an 8-point advantage on the economy," said Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. "If the current numbers hold, Barack Obama will do appreciably better in rural American than John Kerry did four years ago. That said, this survey shows some real challenges for the Democratic front-runner."

The poll shows that both Republican and Democratic candidates need to pay attention to rural voters, said Dee Davis, president of the Center for Rural Strategies, which has conducted similar polls of rural voters since 2004.

"We keep seeing that national elections turn on rural votes," Davis said. "But we are miles away from seeing national policies on issues like energy, jobs and the environment that reflect the concerns of rural voters."

Rural voters said that the high cost of energy was the most important economic issue. Half of all respondents selected this issue, twice the number that selected the next highest issue, which was spending too much money on Iraq.

Other poll findings included:

• Obama scored better with rural voters against McCain on issues of the economy (an 8-point advantage) and creating "the right kind of change" (a 10-point advantage). But McCain scored better on the situation in Iraq (3-point advantage) and shared values (9-point advantage).
• Respondents split equally between Obama and McCain (36 percent each) when asked which candidate would do a better job dealing with rural issues.
• McCain was viewed positively by 39 percent of those polled. The Republican was viewed negatively by 40 percent. Obama was viewed positively by 37 percent positive of those polled, negatively by 42 percent. Clinton also was viewed positively by 37 percent, negatively by 47 percent.
• President Bush's positive rating stands at 29 percent. The president's negative rating among rural voters is now 59 percent, a sharp contrast to 2004 when he won rural voters by 19 points.

The nonpartisan poll was commissioned by the Center for Rural Strategies on behalf of the National Rural Assembly, a group of rural leaders and advocates who will gather in Washington D.C. June 16-18 to consider ways to increase national awareness of the importance of rural communities. More information on the Rural Assembly is available at www.ruralassembly.org. Rural Strategies is a nonprofit organization located in Whitesburg, Ky.

The survey polled 682 respondents May 13-15 from rural parts of the battleground states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 3.75 at a 95 percent confidence level for several core measures, including the ballot tests and the favorability numbers. For other questions, the margin of error is +/- 3.75.

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NOTE:

Anna Greenberg, Bill Greener and Dee Davis are available for interviews by contacting Tim Marema, tim [at] ruralstrategies.org, 865/748-5736.

More information on the National Rural Assembly, to be held in Washington, D.C., on June 16-18, 2008, is available at www.ruralassembly.org. The event will bring together approximately 450 rural delegates from across the country to discuss the future of rural America and the nation. The group will consider policy initiatives in education, healthcare, environment/natural resources and investment. Press are welcome to cover the event. Contact Tim Marema.